“Ring Of Fire” – Bill Gross, No.10 in 25 Most Powerful People In Business And 3 Times “Fixed Income Manager Of The Year”

March 8, 2010 · Filed Under Investment, Short term - Medium term

Bill Gross is the managing director of PIMCO—one of the world’s largest fixed-income asset management companies, with $1,001 billion in assets under management as of the end of 2009. He has being ranked No. 10 in Fortune magazine’s list of the 25 most powerful people in business. In 2007, he was named “fixed-income manager of the year” by Morningstar for the third time in 10 years.

In his February online investment outlook letter, entitled “Ring of Fire”, Gross lumps the U.S. in the “ring of fire” along with vulnerable countries such as Spain, Greece, Italy, Ireland, and the U.K. in terms of investment risk. He said all these countries have government debt approaching 90% of GDP!! And this, says Gross—citing a book by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff called This Time is Different—is bad news, as such high debt levels slow growth by 1% or more, slashing returns on investment and on financial assets.

Gross also cites a McKinsey Global Institute study titled “Debt and deleveraging: The global credit bubble and its economic consequences.” It looks at total debt, public and private, and concludes that countries that enter financial crises with lower initial debt levels can respond far better—explaining why India, Brazil, China, and Canada were relatively shielded from the recent financial downturn.

Gross advises investors to put growth and currency assets in developing economies, especially in Asia. He wrote: “When the price is right, go where the growth is, where the consumer sector is still in its infancy, where national debt levels are low, where reserves are high, and where trade surpluses promise to generate additional reserves for years to come. Look for a savings-oriented economy which should gradually evolve into a consumer-focused economy. China, India, Brazil and more miniature sized examples of each would be excellent examples.”

Similarly, he recommends investing fixed income assets in those same countries if possible, though, since emerging markets have less developed financial markets and lower liquidity, fixed-income investors may need to turn to developed economies. His top choice for now would be Canada, because its “conservative banks never did participate in the housing crisis and it stayed closer to fiscal balance than any other country.” His next choice is Germany. The one to avoid at all costs: the U.K.

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